A lot has transpired since we first came to terms with the possible demise of one (or even two) of our American automotive companies. I think this update is best served by breaking up the information by origin, and by company.

U.S. auto sales have really taken a hit during this recession and it has had a significant negative impact on the Big Three. To recap, President Obama laid out the groundwork for "saving" the Big Three, and set a deadline of June 1st. He expected several conditions to be met by that time. In an effort to meet these conditions, a number of changes have been necessary. Below is an outline of the current condition, and the prediction of the Big Three and other auto companies with sales in the U.S.

1 - FORD is no longer in danger of losing it's business. They are financially stable enough that the CEO has stated that the bailout money is "unnecessary". With that, Ford has dropped off the radar and their stock has more than doubled. Ford continues to close plants in the US and open new plants in Mexico to reduce it's union (UAW) workforce and to improve profits. One of these plants is said to be producing the new 53mpg diesel powered Ford Fiesta.

2 - GENERAL MOTORS has not fared as well, unfortunately. GM submitted a restructuring plan back in December 2008, which was promptly rejected by the White House. They stated that more cutting was needed. This led to the firing (by the White House) of the CEO Rick Wagoner, and the creation of a new Car Czar position by President Obama. This new position was filled by Steve Ratner. However, recent information has surfaced that Steve has been involved in a potential pension scandal in NY (but that's another blog post, for another day). Shares of GM have plummeted to an all time low of $1.27 a share. This is a number not seen since the early days of the stock market. For the first time in a long time, Ford has now surpassed GM's valuation. GM has been forced to take even more drastic measures and has been asked to cut more brands. An e-mail was circulated early Monday morning from North American CEO that at least half of the 3,400 white collar jobs would be cut by the end of this week. As if it couldn't get any worse, it now looks like GM will miss their June 1st payback payment of 1 billion dollars. With mounting pressure from the White House, Bankruptcy is more a reality than speculation. Here is GM's current plan for bailout with respect to it's individual divisions:

• Chevrolet - The Chevy brand will remain the leading brand for General Motors. While Chevrolet has not always been the sales leader for the company, it has been deemed the "primary" brand by political figure-heads and general consensus. Little, if any, will change with Chevrolet.

• Cadillac - Little is expected to change for Cadillac. This brand is GM's luxury division, and it will continue to assume it's role at the top of the totem pole.

• Buick - In my opinion, Buick would likely be a candidate for being cut if it wasn't for their strong leading sales role in China. Buick is currently the most popular brand in China and is widely successful as fledgling capitalists flock to it in hopes of living the "American Dream". They continue to be a sales leader. They are considered the Rolls Royce of automotive brands in China.

• Pontiac - Unfortunately, Pontiac is likely to get cut. Initially GM had reported that they would turn Pontiac into a "niche" brand that would be sold through Chevrolet dealerships. It's possible this may still happen, but recent reports have suggested that GM may simply cut the brand all together. It's worth mentioning however, that Pontiac has been the GM sales leader at least three times in the history of the company.

• GMC - Most people are unaware of exactly what the GMC brand is, so it's worth detailing what the division is before we discuss it's future. GMC is a company that predominantly exists for commercial sales. Most people (including politicians) assume that GMC is nothing more than a duplicate of the Chevy Truck brand. For most people, all they visibly see are GMC pickups, SUVs, and vans which are also sold as Chevrolet vehicles, and only make up their small light duty commercial line. However, GMC produces a massive number of heavy duty and large commercial vehicles, and not just pickups. They produce the platforms for tow-trucks, cement trucks, dump trucks, box trucks, as well as people carriers (city transportation vehicles). It's suggested that GM will also cut this brand. The brand will likely be absorbed into the Chevrolet name plate and all heavy duty vehicles will simply become Chevrolet vehicles. I believe that GM must have seen this coming as they've already started branding those vehicles optionally as Chevrolets. Quite literally, the only difference between a GMC and a Chevy heavy duty vehicle now is option packages, and badging (which consists of front and rear badging, and steering wheel emblem).

• Saturn - The Saturn brand started off as a means to fight back the small import (note, Japanese) vehicles. While it's implementation was pretty well received, poor decisions have caused the brand to lose focus and is now a drain on GM. Saturn was made popular by it's use of enduraflex paneling first seen on the Pontiac Fiero. Recently however, Saturn has done a 180 (in perceivably the wrong direction) and the vast majority of their models are nothing more than rebadged vehicles from GM's European divisions. GM has stated that they WILL cut the Saturn brand, and they are seeking buyers at this present date. If they do not seek a buyer by their June 1st deadline, they will simply liquidate the entire brand. There are a few companies which are interested in Saturn, one of which has determined it would like to continue it's current market plan, and introduce not just rebadged GM European vehicles, but more fuel efficient vehicles from other brands as well. The clock is ticking however, and no definitive sales plans have been made.

• Hummer - This widely popular brand took a massive sales hit in early 2008 when oil futures hit a record high. Sales have dropped to levels never anticipated. This is a massive hit on many dealerships which, in an attempt to glamorize the brand, built Hummer specific dealerships. The Hummer brand WILL be cut, and GM is currently seeking a buyer. GM has stated they will close Hummer all together if a buyer is not found by the June 1st deadline.

• Saab - Saab originated as a Swedish brand. When the American economy was really soaring, Ford bought Volvo, and GM bought Saab. This was GM's attempt to get into the European luxury car market. Although GM arguably greatly improved Saab, including it's sales in the US market, it's become a constant drain. GM recently spun off Saab and filed for restructuring bankruptcy. GM is currently awaiting a buyer for Saab and hopes that the Swedish government will buy it back.

• Vauxhall - Vauxhall is one of GM's European brands. Originally a UK automaker, GM has owned this brand since 1925. The economic situation of this division is pretty solid, and GM has no immediate stated plans to sell it. However, there have been rumors that Chinese manufacturer SAIC has expressed interest in purchasing Vauxhall. SAIC states this isn't the case.

• Opel - Opel is another of GM's European brands. Opel started life as a German manufacturer, but was wholly purchased by GM in 1931. It had also been rumored that SAIC was interested in Opel, but this was also derided as nothing but rumors. GM expressed today however that they are seeking to sell their "controlling stake" in Opel with the understanding and agreement by the buyers that they have the option to form a new company. This new company would be supported by the existing dealer network.

• Holden - Holden is GM's Australian brand that was purchased in 1931. There is little new information or news related to this division. This division has been relatively successful and maintains a leading sales role in Australia. It is likely that this brand will remain in 100% control by GM.

To put this all into perspective, GM will likely shed half of it's brands. The bankruptcy / restructuring plan has been said to be nothing more than a means to break the UAW contracts. Although Obama owes his presidency in part to the unions, it's become an almost equilateral agreement among both Republican and Democrat lawmakers that this is the only way to solvency for GM. Although Democrats normally support unions, they've remained almost completely silent in their support for the UAW in the past few months. My prediction is that GM will in fact file for bankruptcy, emerge from the rubble with half of it's brands, and exist as a company that is the same size as Ford Motor Company. In the mean time, GM will continue to cut spending by selling prototypes from their Heritage Collection at Barrett Jackson, and shutting down the majority of their plants for the summer to reduce inventory and operating expenses.

3 - CHRYSLER: If you thought GM's news was bleak, then you'll be even more dissappointed in Chrysler. With mounting debt and decreased sales, the Obama administration has set a deadline of May 1st for a "shotgun marriage" with Fiat. Unfortunately for Chrysler, talks with Fiat have stalled and, with Fiat's own massive debt problems, it seems like a poor fit. Fiat would likely do well to buy Chrysler, but in the mean time, there's significant risk for them to do so. Fiat originally expressed interest in Chrysler as a means of utilizing it's dealer network to re-introduce their own Fiat vehicles back into America. Fiat largely left the American market in the mid-1980's with the only two vehicles (at that time) being the Fiat 124 Spyder and the Fiat X-1/9 Bertone. Although I have personal hope that Chrysler will see solvency in a Fiat marriage, it's unlikely at this point that they will, in fact, seal this deal. The Obama administration has not made any additional comments as to what they would plan to do, but if Serberus corporation cannot get additional funding, it's likely that Chrysler would be liquidated and pieced apart like AMC was many years ago. Although none of this is definite, here is what I speculate will happen to their brands:

• Dodge - The Dodge brand has little in terms of profitable vehicles. The two most prominent or successful models (not necessarily both) is their Dodge truck line and the Dodge Caravan. Personally, I would expect that someone would buy up the tooling for the truck line. I would expect possible suitors to be Mitsubishi (which currently lacks a solid truck line), or potentially even Mazda. My bets are on Mitsubishi as Dodge has had a long standing platform agreement with them for many years. Examples of this in the past include the Dodge Raider / Mitsubishi Montero, Dodge Conquest / Mitsubishi Starion, Dodge Stealth / Mitsubishi 3000 GT, and their drivetrain agreements. As for the Dodge Caravan, this vehicle is currently being sold by Volkswagen as their primary US market minivan. I would expect (considering their immediate interest in this model) to buy up the tooling (as well as the plant). As for the remainder of the models... although the Challenger and Charger are certainly cool, it's unlikely that anyone will have any interest in them. I do suspect, however, that the powertrain will be of some interest to any number of companies, possibly even Honda who currently does not have a viable production V8 engine. Another indication that this will likely come true, is a new contract between Ford and Cummins Diesel. Cummins has produced the diesel powerplants for Dodge Trucks for decades, and this new 2010 contract proves to be another indicator in their own fears of Dodge solvency.

• Chrysler -  There is little of value in this brand. Chrysler has done a very poor job of distinguishing exactly what this brand represents. In my opinion, and that of general consensus, It no longer matches that of Ford's Lincoln or GM's Cadillac... of which it was originally meant to compete with. Their vehicles are more along the lines of Buick, or luxury versions of the Dodge vehicles. I would expect this brand to fade into oblivion.

• Jeep - Jeep is a very old and valuable brand. It's interesting to note that "changing hands" is not a new experience for them. Jeep was originally the name of it's first model, made specifically for the US military in 1941. This model was produced under the Willys brand. The Jeep vehicle was then sold to Kaiser in 1953 where the Jeep "brand" was first officially formed. After Kaiser's own troubled times, the Jeep brand was purchased by AMC (American Motor Company) in 1970. By the mid 80's, AMC had it's own problems and filed for bankruptcy. Chrysler purchased the Jeep brand from AMC in 1987 as the company was liquidated. With this storied history, and the significance that is the Jeep brand, it's unlikely that Jeep will dissolve. I expect Jeep will go on either as it's own brand, or as a subsidiary as any one of the other auto companies in the US market.  

4 - Japanese Auto Makers - Although the Japanese auto makers deserve their own break-down, they came into this recession in relatively good shape and therefore little will likely change.

• Toyota has been the hardest hit with a significant sales drop in their own domestic sales (sales in Japan). The sales in Japan have dropped an astonishing 58% with a decrease in export by 68% in the face of cheaper competition. In total, Toyota sales (global and domestic) have dropped 51%. They have seen an increase in China sales. These percentages are major, however, and I feel that we're only seeing the beginning of a much larger issue. More to come as the events unfold.

• Honda has also seen a significant decrease in sales, although in terms of percentages they have fared better than Toyota. Honda has made significant cuts in all non-essential departments. One major change for Honda was their dissolution of their Formula-1 racing team. Honda has been involved in Formula-1 since 1964. Sadly, 2008 was the last season for Honda racing, bringing their 44 year tradition to an end. Their non-factory team pulled out half way in the season last year, and they pulled out their 2009 entry before this season.

Note: Other Japanese makes are not mentioned either because they are too small to have any major impact, or are subsidiaries of other companies (e.g. Nissan is owned by French Renault).

5 - European Auto Makers - Little has changed with the European auto makers. They've fared much better than the rest, honestly. Volkswagen is poised to knock Toyota off it's 6 month global sales leader position (recently taken from GM). Porsche has fared the worst of the European auto makers, and it's been suggested that Volkswagen may buy a significant stake in Porsche. It's interesting to note that this wouldn't be the first time, and in the recent past, it's been the other way around.

6 - Other Manufacturers: Little else has changed in terms of the other manufacturers. Korean manufacturers Hyundai Kia Automotive Group have been relatively untouched and are probably in the best shape of them all. TaTa Motors (India) is still pushing to potentially release it's new $2,000 vehicle in America, however no agreements have yet been made. Its likely that in order to pass all the stringent US CAFE and EPA standards, the price of the vehicle would significantly exceed $2,000.

In summary, the automotive global landscape is going to undergo significant changes. For the most part, Chrysler and GM will change forever, while Ford seems to be making major improvements. I would expect we may see Ford surpass GM as the major U.S. player. The dissolution of the UAW contracts will be a huge improvement for the bottom line of the Big Three, although as I mentioned, it looks like it might be too late for Chrysler.